(This column written by Craig Reeves and will be appropriately categorized under his name in due time.)
For you youngsters out there that just started watching WWE only a few years ago, there was once a period when WWE was not like it is today. It was like what we’re going to be re-introduced to tonight when WWE returns to programming in a format that features two different talent rosters and two different sets of storylines for WWE Raw and WWE SmackDown Live.
The Reason for the Brand Split
Let us be clear that the only reason this is happening is because SmackDown’s ratings have been much worse than expected since moving to Thursday nights on the USA Network from the Syfy Channel in January. WWE brass expected for SmackDown to compete with Raw better than it has. Not only is WWE not happy about this but USA Network is especially displeased. WWE figured that people did not feel there was any reason to watch SmackDown because it featured largely the same talents in the same storylines as what was seen earlier that week on Raw and rarely was there any real storyline progression. The feeling is that once the brand split occurs, there will be two different storylines and talent rosters on Raw and SmackDown Live, giving fans an incentive to watch both shows.
Let’s get something straight right now. This brand split is absolutely not being done because it will make the WWE Creative team’s job easier in producing more compelling and better written storylines. Don’t let Stephanie McMahon fool you into believing that this is guaranteed to actually improve the quality of the television product for either show. This is not being done for the purpose of making new stars either. Why am I saying this? Because the ratings for both Raw and SmackDown have continued to go down for the past decade regardless of a brand split. And the number one reason most people will tell you that is the case is because the storylines are poorly written and WWE refuses to or is incapable of making stars.
A brand split isn’t going to prevent WWE from start-and-stop storylines, even-steven booking, pigeonholing talents, overly scripted promos, schizophrenic plot-lines and flat characters. If WWE’s strategy to improve SmackDown’s ratings is simply to provide a “top drawing guy” that is only exclusive to that brand, I can tell you with near certainty that this brand split is going to fail miserably just like it did last time.
A Brief Look Back in Time: The 2002 Brand Split
Now I’m going to slow down just a little here and offer a bit of a history lesson to get you up to speed on why myself, and the overwhelming majority of wrestling fans on every major wrestling site on the Internet agree that the first brand split was a failure.
The original brand split occurred in the Spring of 2002. The year prior to that brand split, Raw’s average television rating was a healthy and hearty 4.64 (that is way higher than today’s ratings, by the way). SmackDown’s average rating was an impressive 4.03. The brand split was done due to the fact that WWE acquired both WCW and ECW the year before and there was a huge influx of talent as a result from both of those companies.
You can already see how tonight’s draft and the subsequent brand split is going to be different from 2002 as the ratings then were very high and the purpose of the brand split was based on WWE having more talents on the roster than they knew what to do with while in 2016, the ratings are very low for both shows and WWE has fewer talents on the main roster than necessary to fill both shows, as evidenced by them having to call six acts up from NXT.
So what happened after WWE implemented the brand split in 2002 and kept it in place for ten years? Did the ratings go up?
Not only did the ratings drop for SmackDown, but the ratings for both shows dropped faster than at any other point in the history of Raw and SmackDown. Even worse, as I said before, WWE’s reasons for doing this upcoming brand split is so that SmackDown’s ratings can compete with Raw. But despite Raw’s ratings sinking faster than a bowling ball in a swimming pool during the first brand split, SmackDown’s ratings during that time sank even faster and became less competitive with Raw than ever before. By 2011, the last full year of the brand split, the ratings for both Raw and SmackDown had dropped to record lows. SmackDown was far less relevant, and while Raw lost a ton of viewers, SmackDown lost even more.
Keep in mind that while the original brand split was an abject failure, it started under much more favorable conditions than what this upcoming brand split is going to start under. In 2002, the WWE roster was the largest and deepest in the company’s history and the ratings were much better than they are today. And while we do have a very talented roster currently in WWE, many of them have been underutilized for so long that it will be a difficult task in making them relevant again.
With all that being said, why does WWE feel as though a brand split this time is going to increase the ratings even though it did the exact opposite in 2002 under much more favorable conditions?
Implications of the Upcoming Brand Split
As if things couldn’t get any more questionable, they do. There is a rumor that the brand split will affect pay-per-views as well in that not only will there be more pay-per-view events scheduled this year, some of these pay-per-views will be exclusive to Raw while others are exclusive to SmackDown. This will not be the case for all of the pay-per-views such as WrestleMania, Royal Rumble, SummerSlam, Survivor Series and possibly Money in the Bank. I don’t know exactly what kind of effect this is going to have but I kind of feel like the risk in doing that would be that, Heaven forbid, one show’s ratings start to go South, all of that brand’s corresponding pay-per-view events go South along with it. What we would end up having is one set of pay-per-views fans care about and another set of pay-per-views the fans don’t care about which would devalue WWE pay-per-view events as a whole.
Just like in 2002, in this upcoming brand split, each brand will have an authority figure. Shane McMahon will be the main authority figure of SmackDown Live while Stephanie McMahon will be the main authority figure for Raw. They each picked out a General Manager for their respective shows. Shane McMahon is a babyface authority figure so he chose the recently retired Daniel Bryan to be his GM. Daniel Bryan is one of the most beloved individuals in professional wrestling and is equally over with both the hardcore fans and the casual fans. There couldn’t be a better choice for a SmackDown Live GM.
I thought surely Stephanie McMahon would choose her husband, Triple H, as GM for Raw, but she ended up choosing Mick Foley. Foley has a reality show starring him and his daughter Noelle on the WWE Network and has been active with the company here and there all year. While I’m surprised that he was chosen and not Triple H, if they’re going to call upon a legend who is over with the fans to serve as GM, Foley isn’t a bad choice at all.
Now in my opinion, one of the most ridiculous aspects of the original brand split was the “brand war”: the idea that both Raw and SmackDown were rival brands and you would see them in storylines and matches pitted against each other. The reason this was so ridiculous was because characters who had been enemies on one show for months all of a sudden found themselves teaming up against the rival “brand”. It made no sense because fans knew that both shows were under the WWE umbrella. The temptation by WWE might be to try this brand war idea out again. I truly hope they do not.
It is also said that this time, WWE will attempt to make each show different from one another, starting with the talents picked. Rumor has it that the picks for each show will be based upon the fan base they appeal to. It is said that SmackDown Live will appeal to the more hardcore fans while Raw will appeal to the more casual fans. This actually might be more difficult than you think because several of the talents have cross-over appeal. I personally think that the talents chosen for each show should be based more on providing the best quality storylines and matchups for both shows than which audience they appeal to.
What WWE Needs to Do to Make It Work
WWE, however, is certainly onto something by emphasizing the importance of both shows being distinct from one another. One of the biggest problems with the original brand split was that both shows started to feel like the same thing but with just two different color schemes.
SmackDown Live desperately needs a complete overhaul in its stage and lighting or the risk will be that it will feel like the “B” show rather than its own show. SmackDown Live will also need top talents who are actually over. Both shows will need that actually.
While I understand that there is a heated debate going on online about whether or not to have separate championship titles, it’s way too early right now to even think of such a thing. We don’t even know if this brand split is going to work. There is no need to commit to it right now by introducing new championship titles. As of right now, champions really need to stay on their own shows for the most part, occasionally showing up every once in a while on the other show.
Another thing we definitely do not need to see this time around is talents switching brands constantly to boost ratings for the other show. For instance, John Cena, who is on SmackDown Live, is moved to Raw because Raw’s ratings are falling. This kind of Band-Aid fix really hurt the ratings in the long run during the original brand split because not only did it hurt the integrity of the brand split, but it caused WWE to rely on the same people rather than building new stars instead.
The rules for tonight’s draft are as follows: since Raw is three hours long and SmackDown Live will be two, the roster will be a third larger for Raw, so for every two draft picks that end up going to SmackDown Live, three will go to Raw. Also, six NXT draft picks will be chosen. We can assume that among those six will be at least one female talent and at least one tag-team. It will be a challenge to introduce all six acts effectively but if WWE puts in enough effort, it can be done.
WWE really wants the ratings for SmackDown to get better, the problem with the ratings though, as I stated earlier, is that WWE’s creative team isn’t coming up with good content. Period. The characters are flat, the storylines are predictable or non-existent and the booking is oftentimes nonsensical. There are more plot-holes than anyone cares to count and it is all because the people coming up with these storylines are simply not putting in the necessary time or effort to come up with better content. I’ve been in the creative arts my entire life. I know how much time and effort it takes to create something good and the current product is not evidence of that time or effort being put in.
With the exception of adding six new acts from NXT, WWE is essentially splitting the roster, where a larger portion ends up going to Raw and the smaller portion ends up on SmackDown Live. Both rosters as a result will be smaller than what we have now for both shows. The main advantage of two small rosters is that there is less competition for each talent on either show, making it more likely that individuals will get storylines who would have otherwise been overlooked, but the disadvantage is that you run the risk of the same people on television week in and week out.
Such a scenario would cause the company, in order to keep things fresh, to start switching people from brand to brand constantly. This is the constant switching that we’ve established that we’re trying to avoid. When talents constantly switched brands during the original brand split, it made it nearly impossible unless you were constantly following the product to know who was on what brand. The brands suddenly felt interchangeable and the talents themselves as a result came across as interchangeable.
One thing WWE seems to be aware of is the importance of each brand having its own identity. That is why I have stressed that so much here. Occasional cross-brand feuds and matches can and should happen, but they need to be very rare. One of the biggest problems of the original brand split was that cross-brand feuds and matches happened way too often and so they lost their appeal. They just simply weren’t special anymore. You would even have superstars from one brand just show up randomly on another show for no rhyme or reason. By the time the brand split ended, it felt like almost nothing changed.
There is Still no Guarantee things will work, even if done Right
If WWE abides by everything suggested in this very long article, that still is no guarantee that this brand split is going to be a success. John Cena, when asked about the brand split, stated that he is excited about the brand split because it is going to give talents the opportunity to gain exposure who maybe were not given the chance at exposure before. With a brand split, assuming it’s done properly, there is indeed less competition for midcard talents because there are fewer main eventers on each show.
The dark side of that, however, is this, and I hate to say this but it’s the truth: most people who are not top stars are not top stars for a reason. We often idealize people we have sympathy for. It is human nature. But the reality is that if this brand split is done correctly given the rules we learned about the other night, there will be opportunity available for upward mobility given to talents who the company may have not considered. But a lot of the times when people like this are put in a high position, it becomes evident why they were never put in a high position to begin with. I know people don’t like me saying that but you know it’s true.
WWE Women’s Division in Light of the Brand Split
One group of individuals who could benefit from less competition with the main eventers is the WWE Women’s Division. One of the main reasons why the women’s division was such a success in NXT was because there was less competition from top male acts, so talented women such as Paige, Emma, Summer Rae, Natalya and the “Four Horsewomen” of NXT didn’t have to compete for match time with as many top males and benefited greatly as a result, helping to change the face of women’s wrestling over there.
Unfortunately, on the main roster, the women’s segments on Raw and SmackDown have been very short most of the time and the majority of the women in the division have no storylines, a creative game plan or direction for their characters laid out for them and are hardly on television. JBL can say all he wants that this women’s division is the best that it’s ever been, and from a pure talent standpoint he may be right, but when the majority of the women on the roster, from a career standpoint were better off before this “Women’s Revolution” started than they are now, there doesn’t seem to be much truth to that claim. One could argue that the quality of some of the matches has been better, but they’ve been the exception and not the rule. It is possible that the brand split could force WWE to actually address the real problems facing the women’s division but that certainly is not a guarantee.
WWE Tag Team Division in Light of the Brand Split
On the flip side, WWE has more tag team divisions and groups than ever before. This is truly one of the most vibrant tag team divisions ever and it is likely a tag team will be among the six acts from NXT called up in tonight’s draft. The New Day, The Usos, Anderson and Gallows, The Ascension, Breezango, the Shining Stars, Enzo and Cass, Social Outcasts, Vaudevillians, the list goes on and on. Unlike the women, most of them have a place on the show and there is a clear game plan and direction for most of the tag teams. It is one of the most exciting aspects of WWE right now and one of the few areas I feel confident the brand split could actually benefit.
The women’s division from a booking standpoint should be modeled after what WWE has done with the tag team division, because it is pretty evident that the company seems to only have a long term game plan and direction for Charlotte, Sasha Banks and possibly Bayley if she’s called up, while there is a clear effort to get far more tag teams over than just three.
Top Prospects
So now, I would just like to briefly look at a few prospects who I believe will be the main players on each brand whether justified or not. I’m not going to place each one of them on a show as this isn’t a fantasy booking article, but I just would like to say a few things about each of these individuals.
ROMAN REIGNS
Roman Reigns has had it rough with the fans. WWE was insistent on him being a babyface despite being completely un-over. He ended up failing a WWE Wellness test which will probably get him even more heat with the hardcore fans. It does seem as though WWE is finally playing ball and slowly turning him to the dark side. He is no doubt a top draft pick as it is clear that he is the chosen guy to be at the top of the card.
AJ STYLES
I don’t need to tell you that AJ Styles is one of the best wrestlers on the planet. He came into WWE and was already more over than most of the main eventers. He did not go through the NXT system nor did it seem like he needed to. He has been surprisingly good on the microphone as well. His character is currently heelish and is flanked by The Club. The only concern I have for him is that at some point, he may need to allow The Club to go off on their own because the act is going to eventually start showing its age. If you are reading this right now, you probably agree with me that AJ Styles is most definitely top pick material.
APOLLO CREWS
Apollo Crews came onto the scene after WrestleMania this year to little fanfare and to very little introduction. He’s been placed in the same smiling, non-threatening role that Vince McMahon has a tendency to place African American men in. Unfortunately, such an act is difficult to get over especially considering that leading Black men in movies and television the target demographic tends to gravitate towards are the exact opposite. He could be a strong draft pick if he weren’t so poorly used.
THE NEW DAY
I’m not a huge fan of the New Day personally but a lot of people are. They seem to be on the verge of a breakup, however. I don’t think the timing is right for them to break up as the WWE Tag Team Division is still building up tag teams they could eventually pass the torch to. Regardless, these guys are top pick material for sure.
KEVIN OWENS
Kevin Owens is my hero. That’s all you need to know. OK, OK. Kevin Owens is a great talker, great wrestler, has gotten over and we have barely scratched the surface of his star potential. Right now, he’s stuck in the midcard but he really needs to be a top guy soon.
NIA JAX
Nia Jax, believe it or not, is the most likely of the women to be called up to the main roster tonight in the draft, based on reports from reputable sources. She’s not a very good wrestler right now even though she does have potential, a good look and is a good athlete. The problem is that she is still green as a worker and it shows. If she’s getting called up this early, it must be because Vince McMahon took a liking to her. Make no mistake, Vince’s love for people of size or height is equal opportunity. Chyna, Kharma and to even some extent, Charlotte are evidence of that fact.
BAYLEY
Bayley is a pretty likely female from NXT to be called up in tonight’s draft as well. Bayley has all of the tools needed for success. She’s a great in-ring performer whose carried some of the most mediocre of women wrestlers to strong matches. She has a bright, fun-loving personality, great smile and a good look. Her character is very unique as it will appeal to kids. While she’s not the greatest talker in the world, she’s easily a top draft pick for all those other qualities.
SASHA BANKS
You’d be crazy not to say that Sasha Banks is not top pick material. She’s very talented and super over with the fans right now. She is probably next in line to win the Women’s Championship off of Charlotte at SummerSlam. She’s the complete package: great in the ring, serviceable on the mic, has swag and undeniable star presence. She’s the real deal. With that being said, Sasha Banks, nor any other woman for that matter, is going to have a successful title run if the women’s division continues to be booked the way it has been for the past several months.
CHARLOTTE
Charlotte, as much as she’s been criticized by many wrestling fans for her promos, would be top pick material due to the sheer fact that she’s been champion for so long. We also have to admit that she’s probably the greatest pure athlete the WWE Women’s Division’s had in a long time and not only that, she’s managed to have some very strong matches throughout her career. Her promos have left quite a bit to be desired and there are women on the main roster who are better than her in almost every regard who are not getting the push she is getting, but she’s improved in the ring since being called up (even though a few think she’s gotten worse), she’s got Dana Brooke in tow and she’s Ric Flair’s daughter. Wooooo!
SAMI ZAYN
Sami Zayn has everything you’d look for in a top pick: He’s a great promo and a great wrestler. The only problem is that his look isn’t particularly unique nor does he have any quirks about his personality that would make him stand out. He could get over but he’s one of those individuals that really does have to get over with his matches and being protected. Right now, he’s kind of running in place. Sami Zayn is so good in the ring that he can make any match he’s in feel like an epic fight. This is good because you could put him in there with literally anyone and him beating them will feel believable and actually get him over. If they want him to move up the card, they need to have him beat a top star clean.
BECKY LYNCH
Becky Lynch is a drop dead gorgeous woman, reasonably over, a great wrestler, a good talker and an all-around great girl. Something is missing with her which is why she’s had a difficult time staying on top anywhere she goes, whether it be NXT or the WWE. Her character is somewhat of a goody-two-shoes which doesn’t exactly work in 2016. This is not her fault because she can play someone edgier. She’s top pick material because of her sheer talent.
CESARO
Cesaro is certainly a top pick and either show would be lucky to have him. He’s got a good look, is an awesome in-ring worker and has a lot of charisma. Unfortunately, like Becky Lynch, there is something missing with him and that is that his character isn’t edgy enough. He has a European James Bond-esque character right now which has potential but it just needs a little more depth.
PAIGE
Paige hasn’t been around much lately, but as a talent, she’s easily top pick material. She’s a great promo with a very unique look. She’s a great wrestler as well, but her in-ring game is often under-appreciated by hardcore fans outside of Europe because she works a decidedly non-flashy style focused more on physicality than athleticism, which differs from the more “graceful” styles that top North American woman wrestlers like Gail Kim, Trish Stratus and Sasha Banks have become synonymous for.
NATALYA
The good natured woman from the Hart Family dungeon is arguably the best female wrestler on the main roster and actually does have good charisma. She’s not a good promo on live television (she’s great in sit-down interviews, however). But the heel direction they are going in with her now is a better fit for her. She has been watching her uncles, Bret and Owen Hart, her entire life and she knows how to play the angry, self-absorbed heel. Natalya will be just fine as long as she’s given TV time to explore her character. Is she top pick material? Absolutely.
FINN BALOR
Finn Balor is very likely going to be one of the six acts from NXT who are called up in the draft. Finn Balor is one of the best in-ring performers in the company and while he isn’t necessarily a great talker, he has a great deal of charisma and style. He had a great run in NXT as the face of their brand and their highest merchandise seller, but anyone who watched him in New Japan Pro Wrestling would know that his true potential lies in him being a heel, a role he never got to play in NXT. He should do great on the main roster and is certainly a top pick.
AMERICAN ALPHA
Jason Jordan and Chad Gable are the most likely of all the NXT tag teams to be called up in the draft tonight. Anyone who watches NXT even occasionally will tell you that these two are top pick material. They do appeal to a hardcore fan base, but I’m not certain right now as to how much mainstream reach they’re going to have. So while I don’t know for sure if they’re going to be a top tag-team on the main roster, based on what they’ve accomplished in NXT, we should definitely keep an eye on them.
ENZO AMORE & BIG CASS
These guys have a ton of charisma and Enzo is a great talker but these guys are actually underrated as in-ring performers, particularly Enzo Amore, whose style of wrestling is a mix of high flying moves and stylish technical moves. These guys could be the premiere tag team of WWE after New Day breaks up which makes them top draft picks in my book.
KARL ANDERSON & LUKE GALLOWS
They made a name for themselves in New Japan and have been somewhat successful in WWE. These two do have a tendency to kind of fade into the background at times though. The problem with these two is that they’re always booked to lose and so it has been a struggle for them to truly get over as a tag team. A run with the tag team titles might be just what is needed for them to finally get their footing back.
JOHN CENA
Um, duh! Yes, John Cena is a top pick, haha.
WYATT FAMILY
The Wyatt Family ruled NXT when they were there and took the WWE by storm when they debuted on the main roster. They are unique and at the same time, often underutilized. Bray Wyatt needs to remain a top star. Easy top pick.
DOLPH ZIGGLER
I don’t know if I’d call Ziggler a top pick but he’s been around for a while and the company gave up on him, so I kind of feel the need to say something about it here. As a worker and talker, he’s serviceable but not as good as people once believed. He deserves a place in the midcard but his days as a top guy have long since been over.
DEAN AMBROSE
Dean Ambrose is a top guy and is the top guy because he got himself over. It never ceases to amaze me how many barriers WWE put up in front of him just to prevent him from ascending the ranks. He broke through a lot of glass ceilings to get where he got. He’s an awesome promo, a great wrestler and is one of the most unique individuals in the WWE. He has a ton of charisma and is everything you could ask for in a top pick.
THE MIZ
I used to not be a fan of the Miz at all. I’m not the biggest fan of his but he’s somewhat underrated as a wrestler. He’s a great talker but his gimmick can get a little stale at times.
RUSEV
Totally underutilized. Not a top pick but a high one. Very good talker, good charisma and good wrestler.
ALBERTO DEL RIO
Alberto Del Rio is interesting because he was brought in as someone intended to be a top star but they completely dropped the ball with him. Del Rio is a great wrestler who can work with anyone and is actually quite a good promo if given the right material and storyline. Del Rio is best as a babyface but for whatever reason WWE was married to making him a heel. Definite top pick material even if the company doesn’t see it.
SETH ROLLINS
No question Seth Rollins is top pick material. I think we can all agree to that. He should be a babyface because fans are not going to boo him.
Conclusion
In closing, I hope you have enjoyed this draft preview. While it was a long, long article and probably the longest I will ever write, with all that being said, I will be watching this unfold with the rest of you, as a fan hoping for the best!
Cattle Mutilation 